A splash of rain early this week has sparked a little more seasonal confidence for producers in East Gippsland, particularly as talk of a strengthening El Nino gains noise.
Heavier falls across northern and western Victoria have also been welcomed.
The Bureau of Meteorology drought statement issued last Friday stated July rainfall was below average across large areas in the east, with long-range forecasts for six-month rainfall deficiencies to the end of October.
The Bureau said the El Niño was firmly established and continued to strengthen, with all models, including the Bureau’s, forecasting the tropical Pacific to continue warming through the southern hemisphere spring, with El Niño likely peaking in late spring or summer as a strong to very strong event.
However, a strong El Niño signal in the tropical Pacific does not necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia’s climate, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle is only one of many factors that can influence Australia’s seasonal weather and climate.
Locally the season has been on the dry side, with Peak Pasture & Livestock agronomist consultant, Nicole Frost, Ensay, last week saying conditions from Swifts Creek to Bairnsdale in particular, were really dry.
“We have close to zero soil moisture at home thanks to a run of frosts, lots of wind and not much rain,” Ms Frost said.
“I moved some cows last weekend and I followed them in a trail of dust with a t-shirt on.
“We were fortunate to get a good start to winter but grass growth has been limited by lack of soil moisture not temperature.
“We’re hoping for some spring rain of course, but pasture growth will be very hand-to-mouth as there’s nothing in the bank.”
She said the saving grace for many will be a favourable season in South Gippsland and the west to provide a cost-effective source of fodder.
“Summer fodder crops also become invaluable in failed springs as they can provide high-quality feed on the back of a thunderstorm or late spring after pasture has switched off,” she said.
On Monday Ms Frost said she had received about 12mm by the afternoon.
At Coonmoor, near Lindenow South, Dave Caldwell says although there hasn’t been a lot of rain over the past three months, the timing when it did fall had been reasonably good.
“We had good growth over May/June because it was warmer which used up a bit of moisture but traditionally August is our windiest month,” Mr Caldwell said.
“We’ll need something to happen between now and October 1 to form a decent season.”
At the time of writing on Monday afternoon Coonmoor had also received 12mm.
“It all helps, we had 12mm last week, but I think as soon as that demand for moisture picks up, we’ll be looking for some more.”
Mr Caldwell believes an impending El Nino impacts different places differently.
“It seems to me here every 12 months we get a three-month dry spell.
“In East Gippsland we’ve all had high stocking rates and maybe we’ll have to back them off, which is not a terrible thing, maybe it’s just our turn for that.
“The El Nino forecast might just impact our market decisions but you’d go broke if you worried too much about them.
“If you jump at shadows, it makes it hard.
“We’re currently reducing our stocking rate, we’ve invested heavily in irrigation and we also try to only feed animals that are going out the gate, because we recognise how capital intensive it is to be feeding something that won’t be sold.”
