You don’t have to be Einstein to be a market forecaster, but it certainly helps.
It was Albert Einstein who famously said, “The only thing we can be certain of in this life is that we can be certain of nothing”.
Try as they might, organisers were unable to book Albert Einstein for this year’s Gippsland Red Meat Conference, so instead they chose the dynamic duo of Simon Quilty and Rob Herrmann, who have a proven track record when it comes to forecasting in uncertain times.
At the last Gippsland Red Meat Conference held in Sale in August 2023, Simon and Rob predicted a “holding pattern” for red meat prices, with significant improvements in 2025 to 2027. They predicted a feeder steer average of 340c/kg for 2024. In reality, the feeder steer average came out at 337c/kg in 2024. It’s not Einstein, but it’s not bad.
There is currently great uncertainty around the rebuilding and liquidation of the US, South American, and Australian herds. Simon and Rob will this year look to pinpoint what stage each is at and when the expected rebuild is likely to start for both sheep and cattle or whether dry conditions may prevail that could change this outlook.
Nothing remains constant in the global meat and livestock sector. Changing livestock numbers, droughts, floods, tariffs, fluctuating currencies, etc, all impact on the end price for meat producers.
Simon and Rob are looking to bring clarity to this sea of uncertainty.
As Einstein said, “In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity”.
For red meat producers the difficulty is disruption to market access as the Trump administration puts a 25 per cent tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on China. Is Australia next?
The opportunity is that this could create more demand for Australian beef in Japan, Korea and China. Simon and Rob outline how and why.
Another Einstein quote which rings true with the two market analysts is “What is right is not always popular and what is popular is not always right”.
This is a particular bone of contention for Simon Quilty.
Simon has questioned the size of Australia’s beef and sheep herds, believing they are considerably smaller than MLA forecasts. The beef herd size is reflected by slaughter levels, with the most recent MLA slaughter forecasts at 8.38 million head compared to Simon’s view of 7.2 million head for 2025.
Processors do not want to believe this smaller estimate. They prefer the popular belief that the herd is bigger and last year’s large kills will become the norm.
But as Einstein said, popular belief is not always right.
Why is this important?
If the national herd is rebuilding, that has strong implications for sellers of livestock and the price they receive.
For the two market analysts it’s all about balance. It’s not just a game of figures, it’s also about sentiment, and that’s why they are always researching new trends and new markets.
Or as Einstein himself put it:
“Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance, you must keep moving.”
And keep moving they will. Straight after the Gippsland Red Meat Conference, Simon is off to Malaysia, meeting traders and government officials to better understand the export opportunities to that part of the world, while Rob has a date with the International Wool Textile Organisation in France, a couple of months later.
Simon Quilty and Rob Herrmann will be keynote speakers at the Gippsland Red Meat Conference on Tuesday, February 18, at the Riviera Convention Centre in Bairnsdale.
Tickets are available at the Humanitix website, or find the link and a conference program on Gippsland Red Meat Conference or Gippsland Agricultural group website or Facebook page.
