Improved cattle prices ‘for the next five to six years’ is the prediction from red meat market analysts, Rob Herrmann and Simon Quilty.
At the Gippsland Red Meat Conference (GRMC) in Bairnsdale last Tuesday, the two built quite the case for a rise-and-stay in red meat prices, covering everything from US tariffs and its beef herd rebuild, to Trump, China and lamb exports to the Middle East.
“We’re truly of the opinion that as we move forward prices will improve both in cattle and in lamb over the next five to six years,” Simon Quilty said.
“We have moved from a supply-driven market to a demand-driven market,” he said.
An increase in slaughter capacity with abattoirs and staff, plus an improvement in global markets in live and boxed beef and lamb had all contributed.
“In America, when they rebuild their herds, it means they need to import more into the US, and they are less competitive in the premium markets that we operate in,” Rob Herrmann said.
“We’re on the precipice of that happening.”
Mr Quilty also quoted David Lewen Smith, well-known businessman and co-presenter of the Gonski report, who is of the opinion that as of the middle of this year, the Aussie dollar would be at 55 cents (to the US dollar) and 49c/US$ by the middle of 2026.
Mr Quilty said he was of the opinion the price rise would continue and August this year would be the low in supply, with July 2026, the second low.
“And that is when prices peak,” he said.
Mr Herrmann acknowledged the ‘counter-weight’.
“As we all know in farming, we are so reliant on our imports for our productivity whether its fertilisers, chemical or animal health, so while it’s a good story on the market side, we know that when prices are good on farms, somebody manages to lift costs underneath and this will be another contributing factor to that pressure on the margins.
“However, the demand for our product is positive and it’s a great place to be starting from.”
The duo weren’t the only attraction at the event.
Ben Young of Chiltern Park, Warrabkook, south of Hamilton in the Western Districts, held the audience captive with a clear representation of his beef business.
Selling 250 bulls a year, Mr Young also runs a commercial Angus herd and a prime lamb flock, and spoke about the value of planning, developing goals and systems, as well as becoming a better decision maker.
He owns 1374ha and leases 877ha, working with three staff, a trainee and contractors, and spoke of how he identifies his business’ strengths and challenges.
He also spoke about ‘The Farmer’s Toolbox’ which included nine subjects, from genetics and pastures, to business skills and people management.
Repeat conference guest speaker, carbon expert, Dr Richard Eckard, spoke on ways to reduce methane including breeding, diet and rumen manipulation, as well as insetting and offsetting emissions.
Western Australian veterinarian, Enoch was also thought provoking with his ‘Building a better cow’ presentation that included the power of fixed-time artificial insemination, tighter calving windows and stronger bottom lines.
GRMC event manager, Nicole White said the event was a sellout, with more than 300 people attending.
“We have received quite a lot of positive comments,” Ms White said.
“This conference is all about inspiring and empowering our region’s producers – to help them achieve excellence in production, profitability, and sustainability.
“Seeing a room full of engaged, passionate producers, advisors, and industry professionals was truly inspiring.”
Head of the GRMC advisory committee, Craig Bush, has been involved with the event for many years and said it grew bigger and better each year.
“Each time it brings quality speakers,” he said.
“This conference has been running since 2014 and while others have fallen by the wayside, it has no equivalent, the speakers are always excellent.”
Ms White said organisers were incredibly grateful for everyone’s belief in the conference and in the future of the red meat industry.
“We hope our attendees left feeling informed, motivated, and ready to take action in their farming enterprise,” she said.
